Credit risk research in stainless steel industry in China

Stainless steel is in ordinary steel to add more alloying elements such as nickel and chromium smelted, compared with ordinary steel, stainless steel has good corrosion resistance and heat resistance. Stainless steel a wide range of stainless steel, according to the alloy composition of different stainless steel products including chromium and chrome nickel products, wherein the chromium system can be divided into Mars system and ferrite system, chromium nickel system can be divided into Auschwitz system and Auschwitz system, wherein chrome nickel system for stainless steel mainstream products. Stainless steel in China's development time is short, but the rapid development of China has become the world's largest stainless steel producer and consumer.   
First, China's stainless steel industry raw material supply analysis   
(1) Nickel element is the main raw material of stainless steel production, accounting for a large proportion of stainless steel production costs, nickel prices and stainless steel price fluctuations have a certain convergence   
Stainless steel raw materials mainly include iron ore, scrap steel, chromium-nickel ferroalloy and other metal materials, China's stainless steel products in the proportion of chromium nickel system is larger, because of the scarcity of nickel, higher prices, nickel accounted for up to 60% of stainless steel production costs, chromium prices are relatively low, so stainless steel prices are more sensitive to changes in nickel prices. The supply and price fluctuations of nickel prices directly affect the price trend of stainless steel products, when the price of nickel rises, the price of chromium-nickel stainless steel also rises, driving up the price of the whole stainless steel market, stainless steel prices and nickel prices tend to be in line (see annex I).  
(2) China's nickel metal external dependence is high, the world's major nickel-producing countries' industrial policies have a greater impact on nickel supply and prices, and thus affect the production costs of domestic stainless steel enterprises   
In recent years, the demand for red earth nickel ore resources in China has been growing rapidly, driven by the rapid rise of stainless steel production and the technological progress of clay nickel smelting. However, China's nickel resources are scarce, the current nickel reserves of about 3 million tons, only 4% of the world's reserves; Since 2014, China's annual demand for nickel metal is about 1 million tons, while the domestic production of nickel metal volume is only about 450,000 tons, so China needs to import a large number of nickel metal to meet domestic demand, the current external dependence of nickel metal as high as 50%.   
The world's nickel supply mainly comes from Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia and other countries, the main nickel-producing countries' industrial policies have a greater impact on nickel price fluctuations, in general, industrial policies include export trade barriers and environmental restrictions on production. The export restrictions on major nickel-producing countries caused nickel prices to rise, and Indonesia's ban on raw ore exports on January 12, 2014 had a huge impact on the nickel market, causing widespread panic in the market. Nickel prices have held steady since February 2014, when they nearly doubled in three months. At the same time, the environmental protection of nickel-producing countries and production restrictions led to a decline in nickel production, directly leading to higher nickel prices, since 2015 the Philippines has carried out a number of environmental protection, a number of nickel mines were shut down, to the red earth nickel mining has a greater impact, nickel prices rose in the short term; In addition, in February 2016, the Philippine Nickel Association made a production cut in an effort to stabilize nickel prices, resulting in lower nickel exports and lower supply, which also contributed to a rise in nickel prices in 2016.   
Because of the high degree of external dependence of nickel metal in China, the industrial policies of the main nickel producing countries will have a greater impact on the quantity and price of nickel metal imported from China, which will affect the production cost of stainless steel production enterprises.   
(iii) Some stainless steel enterprises invest in nickel mines and build nickel iron smelters overseas, reduce the risk of nickel price fluctuations, and help stainless steel enterprises to control production costs   In order to reduce the impact of nickel price fluctuations on the production costs of enterprises, China Metallurgical Group and Qingshan Holding Group Co., Ltd. ("Aoyama Holdings") and other enterprises have entered Indonesia and the Philippines and other countries, the acquisition of prospecting rights and mining rights, investment in nickel mining projects, enhance the control of nickel resources. However, by Indonesia promulgated and implemented the original mine export ban decree, on the one hand, make China's red earth nickel ore procurement direction to the Philippines and other countries; On the other hand, some enterprises in Indonesia to invest in the construction of smelting plants, such as Aoyama Holding Indonesia Industrial Park I and II projects, Oriental Special Steel Co., Ltd. annual output of 80,000 tons of nickel iron smelting projects, the use of local nickel resources in Indonesia for nickel iron smelting, and then shipped to the domestic, so as to improve the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials, reduce the risk of nickel price fluctuations, help stainless steel enterprises production costs control and enterprise profitability stability. 

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